INSIGHTS BY ANTHONY CASSILS

Assumptions are widely shared beliefs that are taken for granted, so they are rarely subjected to critical assessment.  Assumptions have a very positive effect if they coincide with a realistic assessment of the current state of the world, but they can become downright dangerous if they lead in the wrong direction.  At present, Canadians are victims of deeply flawed assumptions that threaten them with future hardship. 

The most dangerous assumptions are that human well-being depends on a growing economy and that a healthy economy requires a steady increase in population.  These assumptions arose in seventeenth-century Europe, which viewed the world as a storehouse of limitless raw materials and the corporation was developed to exploit them.  The idea at the core of this outlook is that human numbers and the economy can grow perpetually on a finite planet.  In retrospect, one can excuse such an absurd perspective given the ignorance of the seventeenth century.  In the twenty-first century, such foolishness can no longer be tolerated in the face of mounting evidence that human overpopulation, hyperactivity, and destructive technologies are fast undermining the ability of the Earth to sustain us.  

In 1993, the Union of Concerned Scientists published a document called “World Scientists’ Warning to Humanity” which states: “Pressure resulting from unrestrained population growth put demands on the natural world that can overwhelm any efforts to achieve a sustainable future.”  Any perceptive person is sickened by the expanding list of impending disasters, such as the collapse of fisheries worldwide, global warming, looming shortages of fresh water, desertification of arable land, the unprecedented rate of extinction of species, and the imminent peaking and decline of the global production of fossil fuels on which so much human activity depends, including food production. 

The human population of the Earth has expanded from 1.5 billion in 1900 to 6.3 billion in 2003 and is increasing by 79 million annually despite falling birthrates in much of the world.  This situation reflects the larger population base, the huge cohort of young people, and the fact that in many countries, especially the least developed countries, birthrates remain very high.  In the same period, the population of Canada has grown at an even faster rate, from 5,301,000 in 1900 to over 31,000,000 in 2003.  In the past decade, Canada’s population has grown by about one percent annually, fuelled primarily by massive immigration.  As a proportion of population, Canada accepts more immigrants than any other developed country, resulting in a population growth rate rivalling that of some developing countries. 

Canada’s leaders and politicians obviously believe that Canada is immune to the negative effects of population growth, but Canadians who have lost their livelihoods in the cod and salmon fisheries, are stuck in gridlock in their ever more congested cities, or suffer from the lengthening waiting lists for medical treatment are starting to know otherwise. Canadians suffer from a myth that we have almost infinite resources, despite the collapse of fisheries, the decline of the boreal forest, a growing list of endangered and extinct species, the loss of prime agricultural land to urbanization, declining air and water quality, and the threat of global warming to dry land farming on the Prairies.  Canadians overlook the fact that most land in Canada is barren and incapable of supporting many people.  Politicians cater to the fallacious concept of an almost infinite Canadian potential because it makes us feel good and important.  As a result, the population of Canada continues to grow in the absence of any comprehensive population policy based upon the carrying capacity of Canada and the quality of life Canadians prefer. 

Despite the overwhelming evidence against them, the old assumptions continue to dominate.   The explanation for such intransigence can be found in basic human instincts and in institutions that have evolved to cater to these instincts.  All life forms seek to expand their numbers.  Many institutions were designed to assist and amplify the human desire for expansion, and depend upon the old assumptions of perpetual growth for their survival.  Some major religions oppose birth control and limits to immigration.  Real estate developers want more people because they require housing and cause real estate prices to rise. Banks like rising real estate prices because it makes their mortgage business more secure. Business wants more consumers and more people to drive down wages.  Immigration lawyers want more immigration because it is good for their business.  Governments favour an increase in population for it spreads the burden of public debt, and they often support lax immigration laws with the hope of gaining the support of recent immigrants. The most aggressive institutions, for example, the major corporations, gain the most money and use their influence to buy the policies that support their ambitions for growth.

 We humans have designed a perpetual growth machine that is so effective, it threatens to destroy life on Earth.   The huge human population and complex societies have become dependent on an unsustainable level of consumption and the overriding issue is: “How can we manage the transition from overpopulation and unsustainable consumption to a level that is sustainable?”

 The scientific evidence strongly suggests that both human population and the economy must shrink to avoid ecological and human social collapse. 

The first step is for world leaders to begin the process of developing new assumptions that address the problems of the twenty-first century.  This will require them to

·       accept the implications of scientific evidence that human demands have exceeded the carrying capacity of the Earth over the mid- to long-term;

·       agree that overpopulation is the chief cause of ongoing ecological damage, the fundamental cause of growing insecurity, and the prime reason that sustainability remains beyond reach;

·       understand that human well-being depends on maintaining a favorable ratio of natural resources per person, not on the gross size of the overall economy regardless of population.

 The second step will be to begin to reduce the size of global population and of the economy. Human well-being per capita will improve if population shrinks faster than the economy.  This entails meeting and exceeding the objectives of the 1994 Cairo Conference on population by not only making contraceptives universally available but encouraging their use. 

 The third step will be to create new institutions capable of thriving in a shrinking economy. This essential thinking must be done to present a coherent alternative to the present destructive human approach to life on Earth.

 For its part, Canada must begin to develop as soon as possible a population policy that comes to terms with the need for limits to population growth in Canada, and should sharply curtail immigration until such a policy is in place.  As part of its international obligations, Canada should redirect its assistance to developing countries to emphasize family planning and population reduction.